Despite Florida posting record visitor numbers for the year, Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU), Brazil’s recession, the Zika virus in Florida and heightened tensions in the wake of acts of violence in the US, have the potential to negatively affect on Orlando’s economy.

Orlando – considered by many the attractions capital of the world – relies heavily on its tourism industry, which counts for a large part of its income, mainly driven by its theme parks.

Brexit

The shockwaves delivered by the Brexit vote have reached beyond Europe, with the UK one of Orlando’s key markets for inbound visitors.

In 2015, more than 1.7 million Britons travelled to Florida – 40 percent of all European visitors to state and about 15 per cent of all of Florida’s overseas visitors.

As Britain’s consumers and businesses delay spending decisions amidst EU uncertainty, economists have predicted a sizeable drop in growth for country’s economy for the second half of 2016, with the trend continuing into 2017. The weaker pound is certainly providing a boost to inbound and domestic tourism, but for outbound locations such as Orlando, visitor numbers are likely to diminish with higher costs for British customers.

“The vote by the UK to leave the EU will have the immediate effect of increasing volatility in financial markets, and will likely lead to reduced foreign direct investment in Florida,” said a statement from the state’s Chamber of Commerce. “We know from history that increases in uncertainty and volatility typically have a negative effect on investment and trade.”

Brazil

A similarly large market for Orlando is Brazil, which is suffering from the country’s worst recession since 1930, putting an economic stranglehold on one of Orlando’s strongest inbound markets.

In 2013 Brazil overtook the UK in terms of visitors to Central Florida, according to statistics from Visit Orlando. In the past decade, Brazilian travel to the region has increased an estimated 900 per cent, fuelled by groups of teenagers wanting to visit its theme parks, specifically Disney World, Universal and SeaWorld.

Those numbers have shifted dramatically since then, with visitors coming from Brazil to Florida dropping 10 per cent in 2015. During that year, 1.5 million Brazilians visited the state, dropping behind the UK as the leading overseas market.

In an upcoming interview with Attractions Management, SeaWorld CEO Joel Manby said that while these issues are affecting his company, the issue is something the state of Florida needs to address.

“I do feel good about where the SeaWorld brand is headed,” said Manby. “We have issues like Brexit and Brazilian business in Florida but it’s not as much a SeaWorld issue as it is a Florida issue.”

The Zika virus

While it hasn’t made its way to Orlando yet, Florida’s department of health has reported 15 cases of Zika virus in a northern Miami suburb – though the Centre for Disease Control only reports 6 cases – something that could prove costly if it spreads across the state, which is bracing itself for a potential health epidemic.

There is no treatment or vaccine to prevent Zika, which generally produces mild symptoms such as headache, fever and red eyes, and 80 per cent of healthy people infected suffer no symptoms. The virus can have terrible implications for pregnant women however, leading to brain defects in unborn babies.

Because of the outbreak, health experts have warned pregnant women from travelling to Florida because of the risk of contracting Zika. The have also predicted that given the geographic distribution of the Zika-transmitting Aedes aegypti breed of mosquitoes in the US, the virus is expected to have more cases in Florida, while it could travel to Texas, spread along the Gulf coast and reach the Caribbean.

“We communicate regularly with numerous state and local public health organizations, such as the Florida Department of Health, to monitor new developments," said George Aguel, president and CEO of Visit Orlando. "No locally-acquired cases of Zika have been reported in our region, and we have every confidence in our county’s public health system and its ability to manage any developments swiftly and effectively."

Heightened tensions

Amid its financial woes, Orlando experienced turmoil in June following a tragedy that saw more than 50 people killed in a mass shooting at an LGBT nightclub in the city.

On an individual basis, Disney was left reeling in June after an alligator snatched a two-year-old boy from one of its resorts and on a wider scale gun-related violence in the US is potentially scaring some people off visiting.

Increased safety concerns US-wide related to gun control, coupled with financial worries from overseas nations, paints a bleak picture for Orlando’s tourism outlook but its not all negative.

The true effect won’t be apparent until new tourism figures are released next year. The most recent set of statistics, released at the start of May said that 66 million people visited Orlando in 2015 – surpassing record figures by 3 million people. The state of Florida also expects record numbers for the year, projecting 115 million visitors. Whether those numbers can be maintained with the successes of the likes of Universal and Disney remain to be seen.