At the beginning of this year we had predictions that this summer was set to be one of the warmest on record.
The climate change that was upon us was going to manifest itself in higher temperatures but with an increase in precipitation. Well, they did get one part of that prediction right – we have had more rain.
There are parts of the country where this almost unprecedented rainfall has brought consequences that will take months, maybe years, to put right. Thankfully, because of our geography and underlying geology, most of Scotland escaped the worst of this.
Then just as parts of south west England are starting to return to some degree of normality – tap water is now drinkable again – the spectre of foot and mouth disease (FMD) looms large on the horizon.
With all the consequences of FMD in 2001 still clearly in focus, another widespread outbreak would be enormously harmful to the tourism industry in rural areas.
Certainly we must hope that lessons were learned not just by the farmers but more importantly by officials in the Department of the Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) who assume ‘command control’.
The announcement last weekend that cows on a farm near Guildford were to be slaughtered as they were showing signs of having contracted FMD, must have set some alarm bells ringing in many rural communities. This cull was followed by another only days later on a neighbouring farm with animals from a third farm having been slaughtered too, as they came into contact with the animals from the second farm.
And what emerges from this, is that this cluster of FMD has not come directly from infected animals but from a research site just a few miles away at Pirbright. This has two tenants – the government’s own Institute for Animal Health and an animal pharmaceutical company, Merial Animal Health, which manufactures vaccines for FMD. Both insist that their biosecurity measures have not been breached. If this is the case, how did this highly contagious disease get out?
From where I am sitting, the biodiversity measures have therefore not been sufficient. There is talk of the higher water levels (because of the heavy rainfall) possibly having had some effect but they cannot be sure. More experts will be brought in to examine this scenario and try to come up with an answer, so we can learn and avoid a similar situation ever happening again in the future.
Experts can baffle us with their explanations and caveats and their diagnosis is often based on a certain set of circumstances, which if they change, demean the original diagnosis as the methodology has changed. I once heard an expert described as “…someone who knows more and more about less and less.” More than a grain of truth in that!
The early season forecast of a hot and humid summer was accompanied here in Scotland with a prediction from another expert that we’d be invaded by even greater swarms of our blood-loving midge than normal. However, as the expert meteorologists got at least some of their forecast wrong, this expert has had to revise her prediction. We have had so much heavy rain which has made conditions difficult for the midges to get to their food (our blood) that many have not survived and numbers are down.
But in another caveat she warns that a warm and dry end to the summer could reverse this trend. Still, it is good news about the midges … so far!!
